Showing posts from September, 2019

Ed Thorp: Interview in 2018

There is a short beautiful interview of Ed in Barron's in early 2018. Some of the key points from that are below. Why are some tables hot and cold? If the game is honest, most of the time it’s just random fluctuations. Those random fluctuations are what I think of as luck. That stock market drift you're talking about—are those the real numbers? It is five basis points a day. Multiply that by 250 days, and it’s about 12.5%. The historical geometric growth is about 10.5%, because of the fluctuations. Given that drift, is stock-picking even worth it? There are three types of investors. One wants to do well and not spend a lot of time. Those should be passive investors, and they will beat most of the others who will be dragged down by fees and costs and punished by what I call “the scared-rabbit syndrome,” which is that they run out at the bottom and get back in at the top. The index investors who just buy and sit avoid all these issues. Then there is the small group

Ed Thorp's Views on Markets Today

I kind of admire Ed Thorp so I am biased with whatever is even related to him. On Twitter he shared a few sets of Q&A. I want to mark it for future reference for myself.

Buffett Letter: 1963 semi-annual 2

1963 Semi-annual 2 This semi-annual letter again is very short outlining operational tasks for partners. Therefor not of much use in terms of learning. Buffett says that a 'moderate' annual edge over the Dow should be satisfactory. He says this because his fund is 13% odd above Dow's return in 1963.

Buffett Letter: 1963 semi-annual 1

1963 Semi-annual 1 This letter in my opinion does not have many new points. Buffett repeats his views on how his fund would do better in a declining market vs a rising market where it would lag the index. He talks about how index is a strong competitor. And so on. One thing I realized in this letter was that he is also shorting stocks when he talks about his net investment positions in Generals. Buffett makes a very important statement -  Investment decisions should be made on the basis of the most probable compounding of after-tax net worth with minimum risk.

Buffett Letter: 1962 semi-annual 2

1962 Semi-annual 2 Buffett likes clarity. Supreme clarity. He even proposes axioms for his investors in this letter. He says his performance needs to be bench marked against the index Dow in this case. If he does better than the Dow they will be pleased if not he 'deserves tomatoes'. 5 year test for performance is what is preferable to him. 3 years is minimum. Reiterates he is not in the business of predicting stock market. He makes 3 promises to his investors Investments will be based on value and not popularity Risk of  permanent  capital loss will be minimized though there will be quotational losses. This he will achieve by having a margin of safety in his investments. He has skin in the game because his family's networth is invested in this fund. He makes an 'unscientific' opinion by saying that 10% alpha over Dow over a 10 year period is the maximum one can achieve.  One of the greatest point he makes again:  Dow is no pushover as an index of